Could Barack Obama Lose The Election?

Obama is leading the polls by a clear margin and is shown by the Real Clear Politics average of all polls today as being +6.5 ahead. Considerable supporting evidence exists not just at national level but also at State level where a substantial majority in the electoral college is indicated.


That said, there have been some small shifts towards McCain in the last two days. None of these are as yet of a size or consequence to suggest a major surprise could be in the offing.


Is it realistic to ask in the face of the really only “scientific” data available to us if Obama could still lose? A number of those blogging believe so, and these are not simply those in the McCain camp.


Of course some of this is immediate pre-election excitement. Some argue that Democrats are pre-disposed to self-doubt brought on by the failure of Kerry to beat Bush in 2004. For Republicans, the argument for their belief that the election is not yet lost is simply the result of a need to lift spirits.


There has been serious debate, however, as to how an upset may occur. It ranges from lengthy and profound discussion of the “the Bradley effect” and possible errors that may be common to the internals of many polls. Always there is that belief that “one day is a long time in politics” (I think first said by British Prime Minister Harold Wilson and he spoke of a slightly more realistic week in politics). This prompts speculation of a last minute event, such a terrorist attack or a message from bin Laden affecting attitudes at the point at which people actually cast their vote.
So, if there are many knowledgeable commentators prepared to speculate on the lack of certainty of the outcome of the election, is there any evidence to suggest that the volatility of the electorate is such that last minute changes in intentions could occur?


There is and it is unavoidable. It is brought to our attention every time we look at the graphs tracking the polling situation over the last few months. It exists in the boost, albeit short-lived, that each candidate received in September that so altered the apparent race to the White House.


How a well orchestrated Democratic Convention and a populist, scripted speech by someone as light-weight as Sarah Palin could so dramatically reverse the relative standings of the two candidates is beyond comprehension.

The desperately serious business of appointing the leader of the world’s most powerful nation should not be capable of being so dramatically affected by events so contrived and insubstantial. Yet they are, in all our countries.


The first two days of next week are going to be a time of considerable tension. As John Prine wrote and sang:


“Gonna be a long Monday

Sittin' all alone on a mountain

By a river that has no end

Gonna be a long Monday

Stuck like the tick of a clock

That's come unwound - again”